Remnants of a Draft: The Case Study of the 2006 NFL Draft

In just six NFL seasons, fewer than half the players drafted by the NFL in 2006 are still employed by NFL teams or are actively searching for work.  And overall, that means that the 2006 class has been a fairly successful class.  If we just look at years 4-6 of the respective careers of these players (players who fall mostly in the 28-30 age range in 2012), we can get a fairly accurate picture on the top twelve players in this class.

1. Jahri Evans, RG New Orleans Saints, from Bloomsburg (PA)

Cumulative AV rating since 2009: 48

The best player in this class from 2009-2011 is a super bowl champion and fourth round pick from a small school.

2. Haloti Ngata, DT Baltimore Ravens, from Oregon

Cumulative AV rating since 2009: 47

I had Ngata as my top rated player back in 2006, but he fell out of the top ten.  It was one of only two times that a defensive lineman has topped my board in the last seven drafts.

3. Jay Cutler, QB Chicago Bears, from Vanderbilt

Cumulative AV rating since 2008: 45

Cutler was drafted by the Broncos 11th overall.  Mike Shanahan traded up to get him.  You would be surprised how often those trade ups (particularly ones for quarterbacks) result in the team that traded down receiving a better player than the team who had targeted a guy to trade up for.  This is one of the times where the Broncos ended up better off for their aggression.

4. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB Jacksonville Jaguars, from UCLA

Cumulative AV rating since 2009: 40

Jones-Drew didn’t win rookie of the year in 2006, in probably the most irresponsible use of voting power in the history of pro sports.  The award instead went to Vince Young.

5. Greg Jennings, WR Green Bay Packers, from Western Michigan

Cumulative AV rating since 2009: 34

Greg Jennings is one year away from completing his second NFL contract, meaning that there is an outside chance he could hit the market at age 29 looking for a third contract.

6. Johnathon Joseph, CB Houston Texans, from South Carolina

Cumulative AV rating since 2009: 31

In Joseph, the Texans signed the cornerback they hoped they were getting when they drafted Dunta Robinson out of South Carolina way back in 2004.  Better late than never.

7. Marques Colston, WR New Orleans Saints, from Hofstra

Cumulative AV rating since 2009: 31

Colston, of course, is actually done with his second contract, and is hitting the market at age 29.  Just a prediction: he will play elsewhere in 2012.

8. Nick Mangold, C New York Jets, from Ohio State

Cumulative AV rating since 2009: 30

Mangold is frequently an all-pro selection at center, and would probably be the consensus best center in the game if we polled enough people.  Still, seven players from his draft class accrued more Approximate Value between 2009-2011.  Is that just an example of how limited centers are to help win games? Possibly.

9. Vernon Davis, TE San Francisco 49ers, from Maryland

Cumulative AV rating since 2009: 30

It is probably safe to conclude that Vernon Davis has provided adequate return on the 6th overall pick in the 2006 draft.  Davis — appearing in the playoffs for the first time in 2011 — set a playoff record for most receiving yards in his first two appearances.

10. Frank Gore, RB San Francisco 49ers, from Miami (FL)

Cumulative AV rating since 2009: 30

If I remember correctly, Gore was widely considered a surprise pick at the top of round three, but he’s been a damn good one.  Of players ahead of him on this list, only Evans and Colston were still on the board when the 49ers picked Gore.  Who had the better draft between the Saints and the 49ers?  You could argue that they settled it on the field in the playoffs this year.

11. Elvis Dumerville, DE Denver Broncos, from Louisville

Cumulative AV rating since 2009: 29

When Mike Shanahan gets it right in terms of drafting a defensive player, I’ll go out of my way to point out that there’s hope for us yet.

12. Tamba Hali, OLB Kansas City Chiefs, from Penn State

Cumulative AV rating since 2009: 28

Hali’s career started slow, but he has matured into the best pass rusher from this draft.  Why is this controversial?  I will explain below.

Honorable Mention

These are not the 13th-20th guys, rather some notable names that came from this draft class who have been among the best players in the NFL over the last three years.

• Brandon Marshall (27)
• D’Brickashaw Ferguson (27)
• Eric Winston (26)
• Miles Austin (26)
• Chad Greenway (25)
• AJ Hawk (24)
• Donald Penn (22)
• Marcedes Lewis (22)
• Brent Grimes (21)
• Antonio Cromartie (21)
• Tramon Williams (21)
• Kamerion Wimbley (21)
• Barry Cofield (20)
• Demeco Ryans (20)
• Andrew Whitworth (20)
• Devin Hester (20)
• Michael Huff (19)
• Cortland Finnegan (19)
• Kyle Williams (19)
• Reggie Bush (19)
• Mario Williams (19)

But from 2009-2011?  It’s not so clear.  Williams is the one who missed three quarters of this season with a torn pectoral muscle, a season in which the Houston Texans finally got over the hump.  The highest rated player on the Houston Texans from the 2006 draft is CB Johnathon Joseph.  But Williams isn’t even the highest (or second highest) rated player from that Texans draft class.  Eric Winston, the right tackle for the Texans, who has managed to start 16 games every season for the Texans since 2007, on a line that has improved into one of the NFL’s best units.  It was debateably the NFL’s worst when Winston was drafted onto it, and he is the longest tenured starter of that group.  Even 2nd round LB Demeco Ryans has been just as much a part of the Texans’ success as has Williams.

Since the start of the 2010 season, Williams simply hasn’t been worth what he has cost the Texans in terms of salary.  You probably would never have guessed that since 2009, AJ Hawk has a higher cumulative AV rating than Mario Williams does.

This is relevant because Williams is a free agent.   He is, in theory, the highest rated free agent available, though Peyton Manning certainly could become that upon his release.

2006 NFL Draft Superlatives

Draft Winners: 49ers, Saints, Texans, Broncos
Draft Losers: Rams, Redskins, Browns, Cardinals, Patriots, Falcons
Best Value: Marques Colston and Jahri Evans, New Orleans Saints
First round busts: Bobby Carpenter (Dallas), Tye Hill (Rams), John McCargo (Bills), Laurence Maroney (Pats), Matt Leinart (Cardinals)
Percentage of each round that started in NFL (min. 8 games started in at least one season): 1st (90.6%), 2nd (90.6%), 4th (52.8%), 5th (50%), 3rd (41.2%), 6th (38.5%), 7th (17.0%)

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